Grizzly Death Rate is Accelerating
Deaths of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) are on track to set a new record in 2018. Just since September 1, 11 bears have been euthanized, bringing the year-to-date total up to 58 with the high-conflict fall season just unfolding.
The old record was 61, set in 2015, and death rates have been accelerating over the last three decades. During 2000-2009, the average number of bears killed was 27.5. But, since 2010, that has climbed to 48.9. That average could be as high as 50+ once 2018 is finished (see the nearby chart). In fact, 2018 will be the fourth year in a row that grizzly mortality has exceeded 55 bears. That’s with no hunting season.
Too Many Deaths or Too Many Bears?
If you do the math, 55 dead bears out of an estimated population of 800 is about 7%. The reason that concerns people is that grizzly population growth, which around Yellowstone was 4%-7% per year from 1983-2001, has slowed in recent years to more like 0%-2% due to fewer cubs and yearlings surviving. Since 7% is significantly more than 2%, people are concerned that the total number of bears is declining. Of course, that growth rate is after counting mortalities from different causes, but still there is no doubt that fatalities from human-bear conflicts are increasing. Add proposed hunting seasons of say 22 bears on top of that 55 and you have fuel for an intense debate.
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© Eastmans